The Global Automatic Weapons Market is estimated to be valued at USD 9.69 Bn in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 18.69 Bn by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.21% from 2024 to 2031. The military modernization programs across major countries and ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving increased spending on weaponry.

Automatic weapons by force are used in a large-scale war on land, airtime and marine. These weapons highly include the state-of-the-art technology designed to function at high-ranges and altitudes. The market is expected to witness positive growth over the forecast period supported by rising defense budgets worldwide. Additionally, the growing instances of cross border terrorism and asymmetric warfare has encouraged militaries to focus on procuring smart and automatic weapons with advanced targeting systems. However, political and economic uncertainties amidst major trading partners could adversely impact the procurement budgets of some countries, thereby slowing down the demand growth of automatic weapons during the forecast period.

Market Driver - Increasing Cross-Border Conflicts Fueling the Demand for Automatic Weapons.

As geopolitical tensions continue to rise across different parts of the world, the instances of cross-border conflicts and violence have seen a marked increase. Whether it is conflicts between neighboring countries over territorial disputes or issues concerning ethnic and religious divide, stockpiles of weapons including heavy-duty automatic weapons are playing a defining role. Many countries caught in the midst of such conflicts see procuring sophisticated arms as essential to gaining an edge over their opponents.

Particularly, cross-border conflicts in Asia and Middle-East have continued to escalate during recent times. Both sides are heavily investing in modernizing their land, air, and sea-based weapons platforms. This modernization primarily focuses on procuring automatic small arms, machine guns, automatic grenade launchers etc., that can help gain an upper hand in instances of cross- LoC or cross-border firing/shelling. The unstable geopolitical situation with frequent flare-ups has made defense a top priority for their budgets. Moreover, non-state paramilitary groups involved in such regional conflicts are also major procurers of smuggled automatic assault rifles, and carbines to step up guerilla warfare tactics.

In Africa too, domestic armed insurgencies and civil wars in countries like Somalia, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo etc. have led to protracted violence for decades now. Well-armed militant outfits are actively engaging government forces while also fighting against each other. Their need for replenishing and modernizing weapon supplies regularly creates steady underground demand for automatic infantry weapons. The civil war in Yemen again involves heavy usage of machine guns and automatic grenade launchers on all sides.

Market Driver - Global Military Modernization Programs Focusing on Advanced Weaponry.

A strong trend currently being witnessed across global defense spending is the growing prioritization of military modernization programs by many countries. After years of depletion during the post-cold war period, defense budgets of major nations are now being ramped up significantly to overhaul their armed forces. There is a concerted focus on inducting new age tactical weapons, unmanned platforms, cyber & space assets, precision-guided munitions and other advanced capabilities.

Countries like USA, China, India, France, UK are pumping in billion dollars towards ambitious 10-15 years long defense modernization plans. A key element of this overhaul also includes upgrading infantry divisions with next-gen squad weapons, specialized carbines and lightweight automatic grenade launchers. Manufacturers are developing a new breed of smart-linked, digitized and ergonomic automatic weapons with suppressors, tri-mounts and day/thermal sights. These high-tech additions are slowly replacing decades old weapons in military stockpiles globally.

Besides the large defense spenders, many smaller nations too wish to bolster their forces and keep up with modern standards. Their focus remains on procuring automatic rifle variants, General Purpose or SAW Machine Guns from global suppliers while also co-developing customized solutions. Demand for naval automatic weapon systems like auto cannons and remote weapon stations for weaponized ships/boats is also emerging strongly. Countries want to significantly enhance the lethality, accuracy and range of such weapons for coastal security.

Overall, the strong trend of military modernization among nations coupled with growing Indigenization efforts will continue supporting the growth of global automatic weapons market. Regular up-gradation cycles ensure sustained off-take for manufacturers while addressing the tactical needs of armed forces worldwide.

Market Challenge - Stringent Government Regulations Restricting the Sale and Use of Automatic Weapons.

One of the major challenges currently facing the automatic weapons market is the stringent government regulations imposed on the sale and use of automatic firearms in many countries. In the aftermath of mass shooting incidents involving automatic weapons, governments around the world have strengthened laws controlling civilian access and ownership of such weapons. In the United States as well, several states have enacted restrictions such as increased minimum age limits, comprehensive background checks and bans on certain types of semi-automatic firearms considered as assault weapons. The regulations make it difficult for manufacturers and retailers to expand their legal customer base and market scope. Complying with multiple and changing sets of rules also increases compliance costs for companies operating in this industry. Additionally, international trade and exports of automatic weapons have also faced many barriers due to bilateral and multilateral treaties signed between nations to curb proliferation of such arms. Overall, the tightening regulatory environment poses a major hindrance to the growth prospects of players involved in the automatic weapons market.

Market Opportunity: Growing Demand for the Modernization of Law Enforcement Capabilities.

However, despite the challenges, the automatic weapons market may see new opportunities arising from the growing demand for modernizing law enforcement capabilities. With rising security threats and geopolitical tensions, many countries are boosting their military and police modernization plans. There is a need to equip security forces with automatic weapons that can match the firepower of criminals and extremist groups that often use high-powered firearms illegally. This helps to provide a secure environment to citizens and maintain law and order. As a result, government defense budgets for interior security are on the rise. Automatic weapons manufacturers can tap into this demand by developing and supplying specialized firearms tailored for police and paramilitary operations. They can also offer integrated solutions covering training, maintenance and upgrades to gain repeat business from agencies. Therefore, the modernization drives of security establishment present a promising outlet for the automatic weapons market to overcome regulatory hurdles in the civilian domain.

Focus on Technological Innovation: Technological innovation has been one of the biggest drivers of growth in the automatic weapons industry. For example, FN Herstal introduced the M249 light machine gun in the early 1980s, which featured an improved gas system that made it lighter and more reliable than previous designs. This helped FN Herstal gain a major foothold in the market. More recently, companies like Colt and Heckler & Koch have invested heavily in research to develop advanced automatic rifles and machine guns using lightweight composite materials, modular designs, and electric/optical firing systems. Such innovation allows companies to command premium pricing and attract military contracts.

Expand Into Emerging Markets: With market saturation in Western countries, players have increasingly looked to emerging economies for growth opportunities. For example, in the late 2000s, Russian company Kalashnikov Concern aggressively promoted the AK-47 and variants in Africa and Asia through partnerships with local manufacturers. This helped expand its international presence. American companies like Remington have also had success entering Latin American and Middle Eastern defense markets through strategic tie-ups and tailored product offerings. Such geographic expansion into emerging defense spenders has fueled revenue expansion.

Enhance Strategic Alliances: Forming strategic partnerships is a vital strategy for weapons majors to gain scale, share risks, and enter new sectors. For instance, European companies like FN Herstal, Beretta, and Heckler & Koch have benefitted immensely from cross-licensing Deals and joint ventures that allow coordinated bids for large military contracts from NATO allies. Similarly, smaller Indian private companies have tied up with Israeli defense giants like IWI to co-develop advanced small arms and gain expertise. Such alliances strengthen competitive positioning globally.

Insights, By Product, Automatic Rifle Is the Leading Product Throughout the Forecast Period.

By Product, Automatic Rifle is expected to contribute 42.6% market share in 2024 owing to its balanced capabilities. Automatic rifles offer mid-range firepower combined with precision targeting abilities. Their intermediate calibers and select-fire mechanisms provide flexibility across combat scenarios. Smaller and lighter than machine guns, automatic rifles allow for sustained suppressive fire while maintaining soldier mobility. Their integrated optics and accessories facilitate accurate engagement of targets at extended distances. Automatic rifles see widespread use as squad support weapons and among special forces. The M4/M16 series from Colt and H&K G36 dominate this segment with global military and law enforcement adoption. Constant modernization keeps improving their ergonomics, reliability, and onboard systems. New integrated rail platforms further expand mounting options for sights, torches, and other modular add-ons. Mass production and established supply chains have made automatic rifles very cost-effective. Their balanced performance profile satisfies the need for volume of fire as well as precision in varied combat theaters from jungles to mountains. This versatility continues to drive the popularity of automatic rifles as the largest product segment.

Insights, By Type, Fully Automatic Weapons are Expected to Gain a Significant Traction in the Coming Years.

By Type, Fully Automatic weapons are expected to contribute 52.4% market share in 2024 owing to their capability to sustain high volumes of suppressive fire. Fully automatic firearms freely fire multiple rounds with a single pull and release of the trigger. This allows delivering continuous covering fire to pin down or suppress enemy positions. The sustained rate of fire they provide is highly valuable for supporting advances and protecting flanks in open battles. Machine guns like the M2 Browning, PKM, and MG42 have proven their worth in laying down accurate barrages of fire over long periods. Their optimized designs for full-auto operation with cool barrel profiles and quick-change ammunition belts maximize uptime. In entrenched conflicts or infantry assaults, being able to barrage enemy locations non-stop can alter the course of fights. Modernized varieties now often integrate enhanced barrels, stocks, and optional linked ammunition for sustained aimed fire with reduced recoil. This high firepower functionality continues to see widespread use among frontline units and has therefore increased the segment share over time.

Insights, By Caliber, Small Caliber is the Leading Segment Throughout the Forecast Period.

By Caliber, the Small caliber sub-segment contributes the highest share due to the inherent versatility it offers. Weapons chambered for smaller caliber rounds have balanced capabilities across a variety of scenarios. They handle and shoot flat while still delivering stopping power at operational ranges. Smaller bullets have relatively low recoil, making rapid and accurate follow-up shots easier. Supply and logistics are also simplified with universal ammunition. The 5.56x45mm and 9x19mm calibers are ubiquitous choices that perform well for both squad automatic weapons and personal defense roles. Their lighter weight compared to medium and large calibers improves soldier mobility without significant trade-offs. Close quarter battle effectiveness is maintained while extending effective engagement distances compared to pistols or PDWs. Advanced small caliber rounds further optimize terminal performance. As modern conflicts see more urban and confined space fighting, systems geared for agility and precision at intermediate ranges grow in priority. The balanced versatility offered, along with widespread armor penetration, continues to drive preference for small caliber platforms among military and law enforcement worldwide.

Integration of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and the Internet of Things (IoT) into automatic weapons. These smart weapons offer enhanced targeting accuracy, reduced human error, and automatic decision-making capabilities, making them desirable for defense forces. The trend toward modular automatic weapons allows users to customize components (barrels, magazines) according to mission requirements. This increases operational flexibility and extends the lifespan of weapons. Special forces worldwide are increasingly demanding lightweight automatic weapons with high firepower. This is driven by a need for greater mobility and efficiency in various combat scenarios, including urban warfare and counterterrorism operations. Despite growing demand, strict government regulations and arms control agreements, such as the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), could limit market expansion. Compliance with export controls and restrictions on civilian ownership in many countries also pose challenges.

The major players operating in the Automatic Weapons Market include Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporation, FN Herstal, Heckler & Koch, Kalashnikov Concern, Barrett Firearms Manufacturing, Beretta, Colt’s Manufacturing Company, SIG Sauer, Browning Arms Company, Smith & Wesson and Israel Weapon Industries.

• In July 2024, Zen Technologies launched AI-powered robot Prahasta, which utilizes LiDAR and reinforcement learning for real-time 3D terrain mapping, intended for mission planning and navigation in the defense sector.
• In March 2023, Israel’s IWI was awarded a contract by Estonia's Defense Investment Centre to supply 1,000 NG7 ‘Negev’ light machine guns, replacing older models in the Estonian Army.
• In January 2022, FN America secured a USD 49 million contract to supply M240L medium machine guns to the U.S. Army, focusing on lightweight, durable, and efficient weaponry for military use.

• By Product
  • Automatic Rifle
  • Machine Gun
  • Automatic Launchers
  • Automatic Canon
  • Gatling Gun
• By Type
  • Fully Automatic
  • Semi Automatic
• By Caliber
  • Small
  • Medium
  • Large
• By End-user
  • Land
  • Maritime
  • Airborne