The autonomous trucks market is estimated to be valued at USD 1.49 Bn in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 4.62 Bn by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.55% from 2024 to 2031. Increasing investments by OEMs in development of advanced driver-assistance systems and growing demand for minimizing road accidents are some key factors driving the autonomous trucks market.

Market Driver - Cost Savings from Reduced Labor, Fuel Consumption, and Maintenance Costs

One of the major drivers for the adoption of autonomous trucks is the potential cost savings it can provide to fleet operators and logistics companies. Autonomous trucks once fully commercialized can help significantly reduce the overall transportation and logistics costs.

Driver salaries and benefits account for a major portion of the operational expenditures for trucking companies. In addition to driver wages, autonomous trucks also promise improvements in fuel efficiency. Further, without a person behind the wheel, maintenance, and vehicle repair costs are also projected to decrease. Autonomous truck driving systems are designed to drive more seamlessly minimizing aggressive turns or sudden braking that can wear vehicle components more rapidly over time.

Thus, by removing the single largest cost component of drivers and further optimizing fuel usage and maintenance needs, autonomous trucks provide a compelling value proposition to fleet operators and logistics companies. This will contribute to tangible cost savings across their transportation budget in the long run, boosting growth of the autonomous trucks market.

Market Driver - Reduction in Accidents Caused by Human Error Through Advanced Safety Systems

Another major driver for autonomous trucks market is the potential to significantly enhance road safety and reduce accidents through reliance on advanced computer systems over human control. Studies indicate that at least 90% of road accidents are due to human errors and lapses in judgment like improper lane changing, misjudging gaps or speeds, tailgating etc. Autonomous trucks equipped with advanced sensors, artificial intelligence, and automatic braking can stay alert around the clock without experiencing human frailties.

Removing the human element can help address the root cause of a large proportion of crashes. Additionally, autonomous trucks are also programmed to follow all traffic rules meticulously unlike humans. They do not get impatient, distracted or take reckless risks. This can create safer driving behaviors throughout fleet operations.

Advanced AI and sensors allow them to detect pedestrians, cyclists or smaller vehicles in vulnerable road positions much before a human driver. They can also alert emergency vehicles automatically by pulling over and facilitating safe passage during emergency situations. This will bolster growth of the autonomous trucks market.

Market Challenge - High Cost of Implementation and Technology Infrastructure

One of the major challenges facing the autonomous trucks market is the extremely high upfront cost of implementing autonomous truck technology and building the necessary technology infrastructure. Developing self-driving trucks requires advanced sensors, cameras, LiDAR systems, and powerful onboard computers which significantly drive-up vehicle prices.

Additionally, the software and technology that allows the trucks to drive themselves autonomously is also very expensive to develop. Setting up the network connectivity, mapping capabilities and cybersecurity measures required for autonomous trucks to function safely also represents a major investment in terms of building communications infrastructure.

For trucking companies and fleet operators to switch over their fleets to autonomous driving will involve massive capital expenditures to purchase this new generation of trucks and develop the digital infrastructure required to support them. The high costs of transition poses a formidable barrier for widespread adoption of autonomous trucks, especially in the initial few years as the technology matures and economies of scale have not fully kicked in.

Market Opportunity - Increased Efficiency and Productivity through Automation

One of the major opportunities that autonomous trucks provide is the potential for substantially increased operational efficiency and productivity through automation. By removing the driver from the vehicle, autonomous trucks promise to revolutionize long-haul freight operations by allowing trucks to operate and transport goods nearly 24/7 without stopping for driver shifts, breaks or rest periods.

This round-the-clock utilization of self-driving trucks could translate to unprecedented improvements in fleet usage rates and asset turns for logistics companies. In addition, automated trucks perform driving tasks more precisely and consistently compared to human drivers, promising better fuel efficiency, lower accident rates and fewer transportation delays.

By leveraging automation and AI, autonomous trucks may attain higher levels of workflow optimization and load utilization that help slash transportation costs significantly for shippers. The efficiency gains from autonomous driving technology could deliver enormous value in more optimized logistics networks and supply chains.

Strategy #1: Partnerships and collaborations to accelerate technology development

One of the most important strategies adopted by leading autonomous trucking companies such as Daimler, Volvo and Tesla has been to form strategic partnerships. For example, in 2019, Daimler joined hands with Torc Robotics to develop and test self-driving trucks. This allowed Daimler to leverage Torc's expertise in autonomous driving software.

Strategy #2: Pilot testing on closed roads and highways

Given the challenges of developing truly autonomous trucks, companies like Daimler, Tesla and Embark have focused on running extensive pilot tests of their trucks in controlled environments on closed roads and highways first. For example, Embark started running pilots with its trucks on Placer County, California highways as early as 2017.

Strategy #3: Acquisitions to augment capabilities

Recognizing gaps, some autonomous trucking leaders have augmented their capabilities through targeted acquisitions. For instance, in 2021, Waymo acquired CMU's Anthropic to accelerate its AI research for long-haul trucks. The acquisition brought in top AI talent and research abilities.

Insights, By Type: Heavy-duty Autonomous Trucks Gaining Momentum in Construction and Logistics

In terms of type, heavy-duty autonomous trucks contribute 54% share of the autonomous trucks market in 2024, owing to its extensive implementation in the construction and logistics industries. Heavy-duty autonomous trucks are designed to haul heavy equipment and transport bulky goods over long distances. They play a pivotal role in transporting construction materials to sites and shipping goods between warehouses and distribution centers.

Additionally, autonomous operation reduces reliance on human drivers, addressing the problems of high driver turnover and shortage in the trucking sector. Leading construction companies have started piloting autonomous heavy-duty trucks to streamline material movement within large project sites.

With ongoing pilots demonstrating successful integration of autonomous technology, the rising demand from construction and logistics sectors will continue propelling the heavy-duty trucks segment in the autonomous trucks market.

Insights, By Level of Autonomy: Embracing Driver Assistance

In terms of level of autonomy, semi-autonomous trucks hold 64.3% share of the autonomous trucks market in 2024, owing to their near-term commercial viability and driver assisting capabilities. Semi-autonomous trucks are equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) like adaptive cruise control, automated emergency braking, and lane keeping assist.

For trucking companies, semi-autonomous trucks gradually initiate drivers to automated driving controls while ensuring regulatory compliance. Their assisted driving mode eases driver workload on long hauls, raises road safety, and improves fuel efficiency.

Additionally, semi-autonomous systems enable trained drivers to monitor vehicle operations and address dynamic road situations. With continued ADAS developments and performance upgrades, semi-autonomous trucks will play a transitional role in the mass adoption of autonomous driving in commercial vehicles.

Insights, By Component: Advanced Hardware Enabling End-to-end Autonomy

In terms of component, the hardware segment captures the highest share as it represents the core physical infrastructure for autonomous functioning. Advanced hardware such as high-resolution cameras, high-precision LiDAR sensors, and cutting-edge radar systems are vital for enabling autonomous trucks to efficiently perceive the surrounding environment. Powerful on-board computers and processors and capable of crunching vast amounts of real-time sensory data are crucial for navigation, path planning, and decision-making.

Moreover, precise actuator motors and advanced control units are critical for smoothly executing driving operations. Hardware innovations in AI computing, sensor miniaturization and multi-sensor integration have become indispensable for advancing self-driving capabilities from highway driving to complex urban scenarios.

Leading OEMs in the autonomous trucks market are ramping up investments in hardware R&D to develop modular and scalable platforms capable of delivering full autonomy. Growing demand for Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy from logistics companies will continue propelling the hardware segment in the autonomous trucks market in facilitating driverless transportation.

• TuSimple's Successful Pilot Runs: TuSimple completed multiple successful pilots runs of fully autonomous trucks in the U.S., showcasing the viability of driverless freight transport.
• Labor Shortage Mitigation: The autonomous trucks market addresses the shortage of truck drivers, which is estimated to be over 60,000 drivers in the U.S. alone.
• Fuel Efficiency Improvement: Autonomous trucks can improve fuel efficiency by up to 10% through optimized driving patterns.

The major players operating in the autonomous trucks market include TuSimple, Inc., Waymo LLC, Embark Trucks, Tesla Motors, Inc., Caterpillar Inc., AB Volvo, Daimler AG, Continental AG, Robert Bosch GmbH, NVIDIA Corporation, Aptiv PLC, PACCAR Inc., Einride AB, Uber Freight, and Nikola Corporation.

• In May 2023, Torc Robotics, an independent subsidiary of Daimler Truck AG, announced a strategic collaboration with C.R. England to implement a pilot program utilizing Level 4 autonomous trucks for long-haul, temperature-controlled freight applications.
• In December 2021, Plus and IVECO initiated a pilot program in Europe to integrate Plus's autonomous driving technology into IVECO's S-WAY heavy-duty trucks. This collaboration aimed to validate and demonstrate the performance of the integrated system across diverse environments and driving conditions.

• By Type
  • Heavy-duty Trucks
  • Medium-duty Trucks
  • Light-duty Trucks
• By Level of Autonomy
  • Semi-Autonomous
  • Fully Autonomous
• By Component
  • Hardware
    • Sensors
    • Cameras
    • LiDAR
    • RADAR
  • Software
    • Services
• By Application
  • Logistics
  • Construction and Mining
  • Others